2004: Venezuelan Voters Chose to NOT Recall Hugo Chavez from
the Presidency
The 1999 Venezuelan Constitution includes a provision for a
referendum to “recall” the President after half way into a term. 20% of registered
voters need to sign a petition to activate the recall referendum. A national
vote is held with one question: should the President be recalled? The President is “recalled” if the number of
recall votes is in the majority and exceed the number of votes the President
received in the previous election. A new Presidential election is required
within 30 days.
Hugo Chavez was elected President in 2000, with 3,757,773
votes. He was sworn in on August 19, 2000 for a 6-year term. The midpoint of
his term was August 19, 2003. Signatures from about 2.4 million voters would be
needed to activate a recall.
In 2002,
Maria Machado co-founded the voting rights NGO, Sumate. On August 20,2003, Sumate
submitted recall petitions with 3.2 million signatures which had been collected
in February 2003. On September 12,2003 the Sumate signatures were rejected by
the National Electoral Council (CNE) because they had been collected without
any official oversight prematurely before the midpoint of the Presidential
term.[1]
On September
25,2003 the CNE announced rules and set November 28-December 1 as the dates for
the recall signature collection. Sumate organized the recall signature collection drive
to sign the petition and claimed 3.4 million signatures were collected. On June 8,2004, the CNE announced
that 2,553,051 signatures had been validated. August 15, 2004 was set as the
date of the recall referendum.[2] Sumate was the primary organizer of the
recall referendum promoting the recall and organizing volunteers to “get out
the vote.” The OAS and the
Carter Center monitored the recall process.
On election
day, a voter exit poll was conducted by Sumate which showed Chavez losing 60 to
40. The surveys were made in wealthy areas, not in the barrios. Sumate sent the
poll results to the media four hours before the polls closed which was illegal.[3]
Jimmy Carter criticized Sumate for releasing the poll results, saying: “Sumate
deliberately distributed this ‘erroneous’ exit poll data in order to build up
the expectation of victory, and to influence the people still standing in
line.”[4]
The voter
turnout was 70%. The vote to recall Chavez as President was: Si: 41% (4.0 million) No: 59% (5.8 million). At a press conference on August 16,
The OAS and the Carter Center stated their conclusion that the election had
been free and fair and clearly expressed the will of the Venezuelan electorate.
On August
16, opposition spokesman Henry Ramos Allup said:” We categorically reject the
results. They have perpetrated a gigantic fraud against the will of the people.”
[5] Allup cited the Sumate exit poll as evidence of fraud. Sumate
requested a Study from economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University and
Roberto Rigobon of MIT and they presented a statistical analysis as evidence of
fraud at a press conference on September 3. Sumate asked the Carter Center to
evaluate the statistical analysis. The Carter Center concluded: “The Carter Center has found no
evidence of fraud. Statisticians working with the Carter Center have found no
evidence of statistical anomalies.” [2]
1. Jones, Bart, !HUGO!, Steerforth
Press, 2007
2. Carter Center, Observing the
Venezuela Presidential Rell Referendum, February 2005.
3. Associated Press, US Poll Firm in
Hot Water in Venezuela, August 19, 2004.
4. Jones, Bart, Venezuela: Divisions
Harden after Chavez Victory, National Catholic Reporter, September 3, 2004.
5. Nevada Appeal, Chavez Survives
Referendum, August 15, 2004.
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